The highly anticipated 73rd edition of Rally Finland is set to take place this week, marking a significant event in the World Rally Championship. While previous rounds in Poland and Latvia were known for their speed, there is something truly special about Finland. Success on the high-speed gravel roads around Jyväskylä requires experience, bravery, and confidence in the car. Will Kalle Rovanperä be able to overcome his struggles in his home event and secure a third consecutive WRC rally win? Or will his teammate Elfyn Evans, who is in the running for the championship, repeat his success from last year? Ott Tänak, known for his heroics in 2022, also poses a threat in the title race. As we head to the Finnish forests, here is our analysis of the current state of play.
Thierry Neuville, the current championship leader, faced challenges with road-sweeping in Latvia. Despite his difficulties, he managed to score nine points overall, which is a decent result. With two out of three fast rallies on loose gravel completed, Neuville still holds the lead. If he can maintain his position in the standings after Rally Finland, it will be considered a job well done. However, he will face the disadvantage of opening the road in the expected dry conditions, although road-sweeping is not as significant in Finland. Neuville’s second-place finish last year exceeded expectations, and he would gladly accept the same result this year.
Ott Tänak has been displaying impressive form in recent events, suggesting that he is returning to his peak performance in 2019. He has achieved three podium finishes in the past four events and has consistently scored well under the new points system. Currently, Tänak trails his teammate Neuville by only eight points in the standings, giving him momentum going into Rally Finland. Tänak has a remarkable track record in Finland, having won the event three times, including a memorable drive in 2022. This is his opportunity to establish dominance in the 2024 season.
Elfyn Evans, who has fallen to third place in the standings, is in danger of losing his championship challenge. Over the past four gravel events, Evans has been outperformed by both Hyundai contenders and even his own teammates. Despite facing difficult road positions and some unfortunate incidents, Evans has yet to secure a victory this year and has only achieved one podium finish in the last four events. Rally Finland, where he has won twice in the past three years, could be the turning point for his season. A better road position than Neuville and Tänak will work in his favor, but he will face tough competition from his teammates. Evans showed promise in the warm-up event, winning every stage, and if he can find his rhythm from the start, he could challenge for victory.
Sébastien Ogier, the eight-time world champion, unexpectedly returns to Rally Finland, an event he hasn’t competed in since stepping back from full-time competition. Toyota’s decision to have both Ogier and Kalle Rovanperä in the third car aims to strengthen their chances in the manufacturers’ championship. Although Finland was not Ogier’s favorite event, he conquered it in 2013. With his current form, including two wins and four second-place finishes in his last six starts, another victory is not out of the question. However, a podium finish and significant points are more likely for the experienced driver.
Adrien Fourmaux has been consistently performing well in the 2024 season, often being considered a podium contender. His fourth-place finish in Latvia showcased his increased maturity, although he was overshadowed by his rookie teammate Mārtiņš Sesks. Fourmaux thrives as M-Sport’s top driver and should feel more comfortable in Finland. While his experience at the top level in Finland is limited, he was satisfied with his seventh-place finish in the previous year and impressed with a second-place finish in WRC2. While a podium finish may be ambitious, Fourmaux is expected to be competitive.
Kalle Rovanperä enters his home event on the back of two consecutive wins in Poland and Latvia. After a shaky start to the 2024 season, Rovanperä has found his form, with three wins and two crashes. Despite his success, Rally Finland has proven to be a challenge for him in the past. He crashed in his first top-level start in 2021, finished second to Tänak’s impressive performance in 2022, and crashed while leading the rally last year. Rovanperä is determined to rectify his past mistakes and, with his current form and favorable road position, he is a strong contender for victory.
Takamoto Katsuta’s season has been a rollercoaster ride, with recent events marking a downturn in his performance. Toyota’s second full-time driver has struggled to secure a top-six finish in the past four rallies and has been unable to challenge for podium positions. While Katsuta has faced setbacks, Rally Finland is one of his favorite events, and he impressed with a third-place finish last year. While a repeat performance may be challenging, the pressure is reduced with Ogier and Rovanperä scoring manufacturers’ points. A strong top-six finish, with a pace close to that of the podium contenders, would be a step in the right direction for Katsuta.
Esapekka Lappi had a disappointing performance in Rally Latvia, finishing at the lower end of the top 10 before retiring with an engine issue. Setup problems and limited seat time since the Safari Rally were cited as reasons for his underwhelming performance. Lappi aims to make Rally Finland count, as it is an event where he has experienced success in the past. His win in 2017 was a breakthrough moment, and he secured two more podium finishes in Finland. However, there have also been crashes, including one on the first day last year. Lappi’s performance remains uncertain, but with the rust shaken off and a favorable road position, he should be a strong contender.
Grégoire Munster has shown progress in his campaign, with three consecutive top-10 finishes. While he is still far from challenging the frontrunners, Munster’s focus has been on gaining experience. Rally Finland is another event where he lacks experience, having only competed twice in lower-tier machinery. His debut in 2019 ended with a crash, but he managed to secure eighth place in WRC2 under super-rally rules. Last year, he completed the full route and finished ninth in WRC2. Munster’s goal is to complete the route once again and close the gap to his teammate Fourmaux.
Sami Pajari, a 22-year-old Rally1 debutant, brings excitement to the event as he temporarily steps away from his WRC2 title challenge to pilot a fifth Toyota. Pajari’s debut is highly anticipated, especially after M-Sport’s Mārtiņš Sesks impressed in his first two Rally1 outings. However, Toyota team principal Jari-Matti Latvala has emphasized that Pajari is participating solely for experience. While Pajari is a star of the future and won in WRC2 at Rally Finland last year, the leap from Rally2 to Rally1 is significant. It is crucial for Pajari to drive sensibly, gradually increasing his pace over the weekend, to avoid any mishaps and make the most of this opportunity.
