Perez’s continuation in the Red Bull vehicle alongside Verstappen at Zandvoort has surprised the general public. However, McLaren must be ecstatic about this decision as it presents them with a golden opportunity to win the 2024 championship. Red Bull’s dominance in the previous races had positioned them at the top of the standings, leading many to believe that the upcoming season would be another Verstappen-led procession. Despite a minor brake issue for Verstappen in Australia, Red Bull had few on-track concerns as he continued to set the standards. Perez, on the other hand, had been performing well in his supporting role, finishing behind his teammate in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Japan. Unfortunately, Perez’s form has dipped recently, and he has not stood on the F1 podium since the Chinese Grand Prix in April. This decline in performance could have serious consequences for Red Bull’s F1 prospects as McLaren emerges as a strong contender for the championship. McLaren’s comprehensive upgrade package has made their car a match for Red Bull’s RB20, which had previously dominated the sport. Unlike McLaren, Red Bull has been relying on a single driver to secure points, putting them at a disadvantage.
Verstappen’s exceptional talent has ensured that he maintains a significant 76-point advantage in the Drivers’ Championship despite Red Bull’s decline. However, relying solely on Verstappen’s performances is no longer sufficient to safeguard their ambitions in the Constructors’ Championship.
Red Bull’s attempt to secure Perez with a long-term contract extension has not yielded the desired results. The Mexican driver has struggled with spins in wet conditions during the Hungarian and British Grands Prix, which have relegated him to lower starting positions and left Verstappen to battle against a strong McLaren and a resurging Mercedes on his own.
As a result, Perez has only contributed a meager 28 points in the past eight races. This has prompted discussions about his future within the team during Red Bull’s internal meeting this week.
Perez’s disappointing performance in the recent Belgian Grand Prix seemed to be the final blow to his tenure at Red Bull. Despite coming close to being eliminated in Q2 by a mere 0.003 seconds, Perez had an opportunity to make a much-needed comeback as he qualified in third place, securing a front-row start due to Verstappen’s grid penalty.
However, Perez’s race quickly unraveled, as he dropped through the field from the moment the lights went out. He ultimately finished in eighth place, or seventh once George Russell’s disqualification was taken into account.
The signs were clear. Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko criticized Perez for his “complete collapse,” and Daniel Ricciardo, who had been in high spirits throughout the weekend, was seen engaging in conversation with Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner and RB counterpart Laurent Mekies in the paddock.
Earlier over the weekend, when Ricciardo left the track with Verstappen, it seemed likely that Perez’s time with Red Bull was coming to an end. The lineup that Horner had touted as Red Bull’s strongest ever would be reunited once more.
However, just over 24 hours later, it was announced that Perez had been given another chance. Horner confirmed that “Checo remains a Red Bull Racing driver, despite all the recent speculation.” He expressed excitement to see Perez perform at circuits where he has previously excelled after the summer break.
The specific wording of Horner’s statement has raised eyebrows and appears intentional. While Horner emphasized that Perez is currently a Red Bull driver, he did not rule out the possibility of a mid-season switch.
Furthermore, Horner’s mention of the circuits where Perez has achieved success in the past is a clear nod to his impressive record in Baku and Singapore, both of which he has won at during his time with Red Bull.
Considering that there is another significant break after the Singapore race, it is plausible that Red Bull has identified this period as an opportune moment to reassess Perez’s position if he underperforms at those venues again.
However, Red Bull faces the challenge of potentially waiting too long, given the mounting pressure from McLaren. With the exception of one round, McLaren has outscored Red Bull since Lando Norris’ breakthrough victory in Miami, reducing the gap between the top two teams to 42 points.
Taking into account McLaren’s average gain of eight points per round over the past nine races, it is possible that they could be within 10 points of Red Bull heading into the autumn break, with six events remaining.
At that point, Red Bull may find itself in a difficult situation, torn between sticking with Perez, who has proven himself in the past, or putting pressure on a replacement to quickly adapt to a new car in the midst of a title fight.
Although Perez has recovered from similar slumps in the past, those circumstances were different, as Red Bull’s championship victory was almost assured. Now, Red Bull is engaged in a real battle and needs all team members performing at their best. Unfortunately, Perez has shown no signs of being able to rise to the occasion, and there is enough historical evidence to suggest that his current struggles are not just a temporary setback.
Horner has been insistent that Perez, with his back against the wall, can produce results, but this time around, even he is succumbing to the mounting pressure based on his demeanor when speaking to the media after the race.
Perez’s continuation in the team has dealt a blow to Ricciardo’s long-standing desire to reclaim the Red Bull seat that he left in 2018. The Australian, who achieved victory in seven races with the Austrian team between 2014-2018, has been suggested as the most likely replacement if Perez is eventually ousted.
Ricciardo hasn’t been exceptional in the midfield, but he has made progress since a slow start and has shown clear signs of returning to the impressive level that made him one of the most sought-after drivers in Formula 1 under the previous regulations.
His performance at Spa-Francorchamps was another confident drive where he outperformed his RB teammate Yuki Tsunoda in a VCARB 01 car that was not well-suited to the track’s demanding high-speed corners.
With 10 fewer points than Tsunoda, who Red Bull has never been particularly fond of promoting, has Ricciardo earned a promotion to the main team based on his results? No.
However, his improvement has come at a time when Red Bull has fallen behind the competition due to unsuccessful car upgrades, and Ricciardo’s recent superiority over Tsunoda has not been rewarded with significant points.
Taking everything into consideration, Ricciardo’s history of winning races and extensive experience make him the most suitable choice to fill the role.
Let’s not forget, the Red Bull car is unique to drive, especially in its current form where there are evident limitations that even Verstappen is struggling to overcome.
Verstappen has been open about the fact that Red Bull should be more worried about its overall competitiveness rather than Perez’s difficulties. However, his teammate’s problems, which have averaged 3.5 points per race during his ongoing terrible streak, have now reached a critical point where Red Bull would have nothing to lose by making a change.
The six-time F1 race winner is a superior driver than he has shown in 2024, but the environment he is in is harmful to both parties. While Perez excels when a car has understeering tendencies, Ricciardo prefers one that is strong on the nose in a similar but slightly less extreme way to Verstappen.
If he could regain his best form in a Red Bull car – and the test outing last summer that earned him an F1 comeback suggests that would happen – Ricciardo would be a more accommodating and suitable choice than Perez is at the moment.
Ricciardo is in a unique position where he could either move up to Red Bull or be dropped altogether if the team decides to promote reserve driver Liam Lawson to partner Tsunoda at RB.
The former McLaren driver’s entire return to the Red Bull team has been centered around going back to the senior team, but it has missed an opportune moment to find out if Ricciardo could be a viable solution to a problem that has existed since he left.
Red Bull’s issues go beyond Perez, but he is the Achilles heel that is causing the biggest headache to a shrinking points lead that looks likely to disappear the longer the necessary driver change is delayed.
McLaren may have regretted wasting numerous chances to accumulate more points in recent races, but Red Bull appears more likely of the two title contenders to sabotage itself with the latest development.