After a whirlwind couple of seasons and two trades, Luis Arraez is hopeful for stability and a long-term role with the San Diego Padres. Acquired in May from the Miami Marlins in a four-player deal, Arraez expressed excitement at the idea of a longer-term contract with San Diego, telling reporters, “If they want to sign me, I want to stay here. This is business. I understand the business. But I hope I stay here for a long time.”
Arraez is projected to earn $14.6 million in arbitration this winter, according to MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Known for his elite contact but limited power and defense, Arraez recently clinched his third consecutive batting title with a .314 average. However, his value has been tempered by a low walk rate (3.6%) and minimal power, leading to a .078 ISO, one of the lowest among qualified hitters. His drop in production this year may be attributed to a thumb injury that has affected his performance and will be further assessed with an MRI.
A longer-term deal with San Diego could offer mutual benefits, as the Padres, who are projected just above the luxury tax threshold, may find an extension to be a cost-effective way to secure Arraez’s talents while managing payroll. The team has previously structured contracts to manage luxury tax implications, as seen with Yu Darvish and Wandy Peralta, and could use a similar approach with Arraez.
While it’s uncertain if the Padres’ front office fully shares Arraez’s enthusiasm for a long-term deal, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin recently cited him as an “obvious” extension candidate given his unique hitting profile. A back-loaded contract could be an option, helping San Diego address other roster needs for 2024 while ensuring Arraez’s stability beyond his 2025 free agency. For Arraez, a commitment from the Padres would mark a welcome chapter in an already impressive career.
