As tensions rise over Taiwan, the U.S. and Japan are intensifying their defensive measures against potential Chinese missile attacks on bases across the Pacific. A recent analysis by the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) highlights the vulnerability of U.S. and allied bases to China’s vast ballistic missile arsenal, which could strike swiftly and with devastating effect across the first and second island chains.
China’s strategy in a potential Taiwan conflict, according to Pacific wargames and CASI findings, likely hinges on a massive initial missile salvo aimed at overwhelming air defenses and neutralizing U.S. and allied assets before ground operations. With Taiwan just 100 miles from China’s coast, a coordinated missile attack could quickly degrade radar, surveillance, and missile defense systems, granting China a critical early advantage.
To counter this threat, CASI recommends that the U.S. and Japan bolster defenses through a multi-layered system that incorporates F-16 fighter jets, short-, medium-, and long-range missile defense, and advanced C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) systems. This collaboration, already underway, is essential for detecting, disrupting, and intercepting incoming missiles before they reach high-value assets.
Research by the RAND Corporation further emphasizes the importance of defensive upgrades. RAND simulations revealed that, without robust countermeasures, U.S. bases would face catastrophic losses, with fifth-generation F-35 jets potentially destroyed on the ground before they could launch. However, when RAND implemented additional defenses, including electronic warfare (EW) to disrupt Chinese missile guidance and real-time drone networking, survival rates of aircraft and base infrastructure increased significantly.
CASI’s recommendations align with RAND’s findings, emphasizing base “resiliency” strategies under the Agile Combat Employment (ACE) concept. This approach includes “hardening” and concealing key infrastructure, such as command centers and sensors, to complicate targeting for Chinese missiles. Dispersing assets across multiple smaller, fortified sites could make it harder for China to disable essential operational capabilities in one strike, enhancing both survivability and response capacity.
As U.S. and Japanese forces prepare for a potential conflict, these defensive enhancements highlight the high stakes in the Pacific. The growing military collaboration not only aims to protect key assets but serves as a critical deterrent to Chinese aggression, signaling that any assault on allied bases would face formidable resistance. Can these fortified defenses maintain a stable Pacific, or will this be just the beginning of a new era of missile warfare?
