In a chilling escalation, Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed a fierce response if Ukraine deploys long-range missiles into Russian territory, a move he claims would signify a NATO-led war against Russia. In his latest address on state-run television, Putin warned that any use of U.S., British, or French missiles by Ukraine to strike inside Russia would cross a dangerous line, hinting at a “range of responses” his military leaders are actively planning.
Putin’s threats come as Western allies deliberate loosening restrictions on missile systems like the U.S.-made ATACMS and the British Storm Shadow, which Ukraine argues are crucial for defending against Russia’s relentless assaults. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly urged the U.S. and U.K. to allow Kyiv to deploy these missiles freely, especially to strike deeper Russian targets, including air bases and ammunition depots. Putin’s counter-message is clear: if NATO authorizes long-range strikes, it will face severe consequences.
The timing of Putin’s warning adds to an already volatile situation. Ukrainian forces have managed to strike key targets in occupied Crimea and Russian-controlled areas, but Putin insists that Ukraine lacks the intelligence and technical capabilities for more advanced strikes. He claims NATO’s direct involvement would be required, asserting that these attacks would necessitate “space reconnaissance” and specialized operations, which he alleges only Western forces could manage.
Beyond the rhetoric, the West is weighing the risks of a serious escalation with Russia. U.S. and U.K. defense officials are wary of giving Ukraine full autonomy with long-range weapons, partly due to concerns that Putin might retaliate with nuclear capabilities. Putin’s previous threats, though unacted upon, linger as a reminder of Russia’s nuclear arsenal and its role in potentially deterring NATO involvement. The Kremlin has explicitly raised the stakes, suggesting that if NATO does grant Ukraine the latitude to strike within Russia, it could lead to counterattacks on NATO bases, which could trigger the alliance’s collective defense clause, Article 5.
The specter of an Article 5 response raises fears of a broader conflict that could drag Europe—and perhaps the world—into a full-scale war. NATO bases in Poland, and other frontline countries, could become targets, sparking a massive escalation in hostilities and testing the alliance’s commitment to mutual defense.
While Putin’s statements amplify his “red line,” the West faces an agonizing choice: bolster Ukraine’s defense to deter Russian aggression or risk sparking an unpredictable and potentially catastrophic conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia.
