October 29, 2024
As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gears up for her second term, her incoming team of commissioners is making one thing clear: China can expect a rocky relationship with the EU over the next five years. From trade imbalances to military alliances, Beijing’s policies are under increasing scrutiny, signaling an era of tougher EU-China relations.
A Strategic Shift: No More “Partner” Language on China
Kaja Kallas, former Estonian prime minister and incoming EU foreign policy chief, is ready to pivot from the EU’s previous stance labeling China as both “partner” and “systemic rival.” The shift underscores the EU’s displeasure with China’s ties to Moscow, especially as Beijing has been a key supporter of Russia’s economy since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. “My priority in engaging with China will be to safeguard the EU’s geopolitical and economic security,” Kallas stated, calling China a “systemic rival” and omitting any notion of partnership.
This clear signal that Europe will prioritize rivalry over cooperation aligns with Washington’s hardline stance. If Donald Trump retakes the U.S. presidency, Beijing could find itself caught in an even tighter Western front.
Trade and Tariffs: EU Considers Hardline Against Chinese Imports
Concerns over economic imbalances are front and center for the EU’s trade chief, Maroš Šefčovič, who has pledged to ramp up Europe’s “toolbox” against China’s state-backed economy and to target the oversupply of goods from China that undercuts European markets. Šefčovič’s stance is reinforced by new proposals from climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, who supports tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which he says will “ensure a level playing field.”
Surprisingly, Spain’s new commissioner for green transitions, Teresa Ribera, also backed the tariffs, despite Spain’s previous hesitance. Ribera has argued the tariffs are “grounded on solid facts” and warned that Europe needs a “broader strategic discussion” on the future of its automotive industry—a discussion that could impact China’s dominance in electric vehicle production.
“Belt and Road” Challenge: EU Eyes Countermoves in Developing Nations
Jozef Síkela, the commissioner tasked with leading the EU’s response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, has pledged to revitalize the EU’s own Global Gateway project, which aims to rival China’s infrastructure projects across Africa and Latin America. Síkela is focused on exposing the potential debt risks in China’s projects, which have trapped several low-income countries in unsustainable loans.
Síkela believes the EU’s offer to developing nations is stronger but notes that China’s public relations efforts have given Beijing an edge. “We must make sure that the world knows Europe’s offer is a better option,” he said, calling for a strategic media campaign to counter China’s messaging in emerging economies.
New Challenges in Climate Cooperation
While the EU has viewed climate change as a common ground with China, Beijing’s commitment to coal use and its heavy subsidies on exported electric vehicles are pushing that relationship to the breaking point. Hoekstra warns that reliance on Chinese green tech imports has left Europe vulnerable, and he supports developing a stronger local production base to counterbalance Chinese influence.
With this stance, the EU is preparing to address a growing dilemma: balancing climate cooperation with economic independence from China.
Future of EU-China Relations: A Tense Road Ahead
This incoming EU leadership group marks a significant shift in Europe’s stance toward China, breaking from its prior approach of balancing cooperation with rivalry. Beijing’s policies—especially its support for Russia and economic overreach—are forcing the EU to reassess its strategy, a stance that could drive Europe closer to Washington’s hardline approach.
As these commissioners prepare to step into office, Brussels is warning Beijing: the next five years will be anything but business as usual.
