Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could be on the verge of a major breakthrough, as Hungary and Slovakia reportedly push to finalize a new gas deal with Azerbaijan that could sideline Russian energy in Europe. According to Bloomberg, the agreement could ensure Ukraine remains a crucial part of Europe’s gas transit route, while Russia finds itself cut out as the continent’s supplier.
Hungary and Slovakia, typically close to Moscow due to ties between Russian President Vladimir Putin and their leaders—Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico—are seeking a reliable gas source as the current Russian-Ukrainian transit agreement is set to expire by the end of this year. For Zelensky, this development comes as a significant geopolitical advantage, potentially weakening Russia’s leverage over Europe’s energy needs and financial influence in the region.
Russia’s monopoly on gas transport to Europe could be in jeopardy if the deal with Azerbaijan proceeds as planned. The proposed contract would see Azerbaijan provide 12 to 14 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to Hungary and Slovakia through existing pipelines, which currently serve Russian exports across Ukrainian territory.
Despite their pro-Russian stances, both Fico and Orbán appear to recognize that reducing dependence on Russia might be necessary for energy stability. Fico has repeatedly argued against Ukraine’s war efforts, asserting that “Ukraine cannot win,” while Orbán has consistently opposed EU financial support for Ukraine, most notably attempting to block European aid in January. However, their willingness to enter into a deal with Azerbaijan highlights a pragmatic shift that could complicate Moscow’s strategy.
This contract may include a “swap agreement,” enabling Moscow and Baku to balance Azerbaijan’s limited export capacity with market demands. Still, the Slovak energy company SPP indicated that while discussions are underway, reports of a finalized deal remain premature.
Sources for this article include: Bloomberg, Newsweek
