As the war in Ukraine grinds on, the situation on the ground appears increasingly dire for Kyiv. Russia is gaining ground along key battle lines in the east and southeast, while unleashing relentless aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities. Meanwhile, Moscow is bolstering its southern defenses with a massive troop buildup in the Kursk region, where it reportedly plans a counteroffensive.
Amid these developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of the precarious state of his nation’s defenses, underscoring the uphill battle Ukraine faces to reclaim initiative on the battlefield.
Russia’s Strategic Gains
Russia’s recent maneuvers suggest a significant tactical advantage. Moscow has successfully capitalized on localized gains, forcing Ukraine to play defense across multiple fronts.
“The Russians have the initiative across the frontlines right now,” said George Barros, a leading analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). “They’re forcing the Ukrainians to respond, which puts Kyiv at a disadvantage.”
The northeastern city of Kupiansk, a key logistical hub, is once again under threat. Liberated by Ukrainian forces in September 2022, the city now faces encirclement. Russian forces have reportedly reached Kupiansk’s outskirts, although Ukrainian officials maintain that their troops are still holding the line.
In the southeast, the situation is equally fraught. The strategic city of Kurakhove, surrounded on three sides, has become what Zelensky called “the most difficult area” on the front. While its loss wouldn’t critically undermine Ukraine’s regional defense, it would mark another setback for Kyiv.
Hefty Costs for Minimal Gains
Despite its advances, Russia’s progress has been costly. Since capturing Avdiivka earlier this year, Russian forces have moved only 30 to 40 kilometers deeper into Ukrainian territory. This sluggish pace comes at a steep price: ISW estimates Moscow has lost the equivalent of five mechanized divisions—hundreds of tanks and armored personnel carriers—in the Pokrovsk region alone.
“To lose five divisions’ worth of tanks and other personnel carriers for such limited territorial gains is an abysmal performance,” Barros noted. “Compared to major mechanized offensives of modern history, this is a terrible outcome.”
A War of Attrition with Limited Margins
From the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Kyiv has faced a steep material and manpower disadvantage. Russia has superior weaponry, larger stockpiles of ammunition, and significantly more troops.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears committed to a war of attrition, aiming to wear down Ukraine and its Western backers through sheer persistence. However, analysts suggest this strategy may have diminishing returns.
Russia’s economy is straining under the weight of massive military spending. Inflation is soaring, labor shortages are mounting, and the Central Bank recently raised interest rates to a staggering 21%. While the addition of North Korean troops could temporarily ease manpower shortages, Moscow’s material losses—particularly its dwindling supply of armored vehicles—pose a long-term challenge.
“Between economic strains, recruitment problems, and equipment losses, these are strategic issues that will become harder for the Kremlin to overcome if the current tempo continues for another year,” Barros explained.
Western Support: The Deciding Factor?
Ukraine’s ability to exploit Russia’s vulnerabilities hinges largely on sustained Western support. While NATO allies have provided significant aid, uncertainty looms over the future, particularly with former U.S. President Donald Trump, known for his skepticism toward foreign aid, eyeing a return to the White House.
Zelensky expressed optimism that Trump’s re-election could accelerate the war’s end. However, Barros emphasized that Western backing over the next 12 to 18 months will be crucial.
“If the international coalition continues its support, there will be opportunities to disrupt Russia’s war efforts significantly,” Barros said. “Western allies can decide whether the Russians win or lose.”
A Nation in Peril
With mounting casualties, threatened key cities, and relentless enemy pressure, Ukraine’s path forward is increasingly uncertain. For now, Kyiv’s resilience and the steadfastness of its allies remain the primary barriers against Russian dominance.
As the conflict stretches into its second winter, the stakes could not be higher. The coming months will test not only Ukraine’s resolve but also the endurance of its Western supporters in a battle that could shape the geopolitical future of Europe.
