Carlos Sainz’s decision to sign with Williams has had a significant impact on Formula 1’s 2025 driver market. This move has set off a chain reaction that will affect multiple teams and drivers. It also confirms several other outcomes that will help bring an end to what has been an incredibly unpredictable F1 silly season.
Williams had Valtteri Bottas as their backup option if Sainz didn’t join, but they are also in talks with his current team, who Sainz turned down. The new Audi F1 boss, Mattia Binotto, has yet to express his opinion on who should partner Nico Hulkenberg, but Bottas is undoubtedly the most suitable choice. He is the most accomplished free agent available, still performing at a high level, possesses the experience that the struggling team desperately needs, and offers continuity.
Sauber’s options are limited. Zhou Guanyu could potentially stay on, but even with his strengths as a team player and despite the unfortunate luck he has faced this season, he hasn’t reached the level of Bottas. Sauber would have to choose from drivers rejected by other teams, such as Kevin Magnussen, or promising rookies like Theo Pourchaire.
The timeline for Sauber’s decision remains unclear. Ideally, they would need to act swiftly, possibly even before the end of the summer break, as finalizing a deal with Bottas should be relatively straightforward. However, with Binotto not yet in position, the wait may continue.
Alpine junior driver Jack Doohan has made a positive impression during his test outings and has been diligently working behind the scenes with simulator activities. He was on track to secure a seat at Alpine before Sainz emerged as a contender. Now that Sainz has chosen a different path, Doohan is widely expected to get the opportunity. Flavio Briatore, effectively in charge of the team in his executive advisor role, has privately expressed support for Doohan’s candidacy.
There are other contenders, including Alpine World Endurance Championship driver Mick Schumacher and Bottas, but Doohan is already part of the F1 team and is in a favorable position to make his breakthrough after a year on the sidelines.
Sainz was considered as a potential candidate for Mercedes, but that opportunity only existed if Kimi Antonelli was not deemed ready for promotion. Antonelli, a 17-year-old driver, has impressed with his performances in testing old F1 machinery and has shown improvement in his F2 form. He is now highly likely to secure the seat.
Unless Toto Wolff’s pursuit of Max Verstappen leads to unexpected results for 2025, everything points towards a George Russell/Antonelli lineup for Mercedes next year.
This F1 driver market has been the most unpredictable in history, and there is still a chance for one more surprise. While Red Bull is currently committed to Sergio Perez, there is potential for a change after a series of four races following the grands prix at Zandvoort, Monza, Baku, and Singapore. If Red Bull’s position in the constructors’ championship becomes even more precarious, there is a slight possibility that Perez could be dropped, making him a factor in the 2025 driver market. However, given that Perez’s situation has stabilized, it is likely too late for him to be considered by teams like Sauber and Alpine, who would potentially be interested in a driver of his skill and experience. That is, of course, if Perez is willing to continue in F1 by accepting a lower position on the grid.
Sainz’s deal with Williams means that Logan Sargeant, who was already on his way out, will definitely not be racing in F1 next year. The one positive for the 23-year-old is that the Williams announcement stated that he will continue to compete for them in the upcoming races, confirming that he won’t be replaced during the August break. Sargeant has faced difficulties, and it is fair for him to highlight the challenges of evaluating his performances due to specification differences between him and Albon. Despite making some progress after achieving parity, his struggles at Spa showed that he hasn’t consistently delivered enough to secure a place on the 2025 grid. Consequently, he is set to join Magnussen and Zhou on the F1 sidelines next year.
