Allan Lichtman, the renowned historian who has accurately predicted nearly every U.S. presidential election since 1984, now expresses concern over Kamala Harris’ chances in the 2024 election. While he initially predicted a Harris victory using his famous “13 Keys to the White House” model, Lichtman admits that her foreign policy key, particularly the war in Ukraine, could jeopardize her campaign.
Lichtman emphasized that the war in Ukraine presents a unique challenge for Harris, as wars are unpredictable and could flip the foreign policy key against her. Despite this, he remains confident Harris will win, citing her two-key cushion. However, the historian’s caution about foreign policy introduces a new uncertainty for the candidate as the election nears, with critics raising concerns over her handling of global conflicts like Ukraine and past issues like the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Lichtman’s model, based on 13 factors such as the economy, social unrest, and charisma, accurately predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, defying mainstream polling at the time. Now, his focus on Ukraine highlights a vulnerability for Harris that could play a pivotal role in the 2024 election.
