Vice President Kamala Harris has surged ahead of former President Donald Trump among early voters, opening a substantial lead of between 19 and 29 percentage points, according to recent polls by the New York Times-Siena College, CNN, and ABC News-Ipsos. This early advantage is encouraging for the Harris campaign and represents one of the largest early voting leads seen in recent elections, though it falls slightly short of Joe Biden’s record early voter margin over Trump in 2020.
Over 66 million Americans have already cast ballots—setting a new high in early voting, as both candidates pressed their bases to get to the polls ahead of Election Day on November 5. A significant portion of these early votes—around 15 million—are from seven key swing states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, further intensifying the stakes in battleground territories that could decide the election outcome.
The scale of Harris’s lead is stark in comparison to Hillary Clinton’s early voter lead in 2016, which ranged between eight and 16 points, a figure that did not secure her the presidency. Meanwhile, Trump’s current deficit reflects a marked shift as he actively encouraged his supporters to vote early this time around—a departure from his 2020 stance against early voting, which likely hindered his numbers in that election cycle.
As the final stretch to Election Day approaches, both campaigns remain locked in fierce competition to mobilize turnout on November 5. Harris’s early lead signals a favorable trajectory, but high turnout on Election Day could still shift the race, particularly in swing states where margins are narrow.
Sources for this article include: New York Times-Siena College, CNN, ABC News-Ipsos
