The outcome of three British drivers in the top three of their home race at Silverstone is undoubtedly a heartwarming story. It rewarded the dedicated spectators who endured a day of rain to be there. However, behind this headline lies an intriguing example of game theory involving McLaren, Red Bull, and Mercedes. By strategically positioning themselves, Mercedes managed to secure the front row with George Russell ahead of Lewis Hamilton.
Silverstone has become a low-drag track for Formula 1 cars in recent years. Unlike other categories that rely on wing loading for laptime, F1 cars have so much high-speed grip that they can maintain a flat trajectory through corners like Abbey, Copse, and Maggotts during qualifying. The speed at which a car approaches these corners determines its speed through them. To achieve faster lap times, it is counterintuitive to run a lower wing. The reduced drag allows for higher speeds on the straights, making a low-downforce setup the obvious choice at Silverstone.
However, determining the optimal level of downforce is not a straightforward task. There are still low-speed sections of the track where wing loading can improve laptime, such as the Village Loop, Brooklands-Luffield, and Vale. Additionally, tire degradation is a factor to consider. More wing usually results in better tire performance over the course of a race. Furthermore, the unpredictable weather at Silverstone, particularly during this weekend, adds another layer of complexity. More wing provides a significant advantage in wet and windy conditions, which have been prevalent throughout the weekend and are expected to continue on race day.
Red Bull and McLaren have demonstrated a slight advantage over Mercedes and Ferrari in recent races. As a result, they have been closely observing each other during practice sessions and adjusting their setups accordingly. The level of wing becomes the battleground in this cat and mouse game. They may be willing to sacrifice some qualifying performance in exchange for a setup that better suits their needs on race day, without losing grid positions to Mercedes or Ferrari, who optimize their setups for qualifying.
McLaren arrived at Silverstone with a low-downforce rear wing and three beam wings of varying downforce levels – low, medium, and high – to fine-tune their setup. Red Bull, on the other hand, opted for a larger main wing. McLaren ultimately chose the highest downforce beam wing to counteract Red Bull’s significant main wing downforce. As we saw in our analysis of the Austria qualifying session, Red Bull’s underbody downforce and effective DRS system allow them to run a larger wing without the usual penalties.
However, the Red Bull car was not well-balanced, and Max Verstappen ran it off into the gravel during Q1, causing further damage to the underbody. Despite the damage, the car continued in that state for the rest of qualifying, clearly not performing at its best and no longer a contender for pole position.
Initially, it seemed like everything was going Lando Norris’s way. With his main rival compromised and Ferrari not posing a threat, he should have been able to outpace them even with slightly more drag than the Mercedes. In Q2, he was fastest, outperforming Russell by 0.164 seconds.
So how did Norris end up being outqualified by both Russell and Hamilton? One obvious reason is that Norris had a poor start to his final lap after making mistakes at Vale and Turn 3. He ultimately abandoned the lap. Even his first Q3 lap was slightly slower than Russell’s, only 0.006 seconds off.
Russell explained how the conditions favored him during Q3. He mentioned that it was tricky in Q1 and Q2, but in Q3, the car found the perfect balance due to the developed headwind. This allowed him to brake late and have great confidence in the car’s performance. Realistically, he admitted that they were still a tenth or two behind Norris and Verstappen, but given the circumstances, it was enough.
It appears that the increased wind between the Q3 runs helped the lower-downforce Mercedes make up for what it lacked compared to McLaren. Looking at the GPS traces, it seems that Hamilton ran slightly more wing than Russell. Hamilton gained time on Russell in all the slow corners but was slower at the end of the straights. However, the overall setup still had less downforce than McLaren or Red Bull.
Andrea Stella, McLaren’s team boss, acknowledged that they had the potential to secure pole position but failed to capitalize on it. Tricky conditions in the first sector, coupled with oversteer at Turn 3 and Turn 4, hindered Norris’s performance. However, they were gaining time and were on par with Mercedes throughout the lap according to data analysis.
The greater downforce of McLaren’s setup should theoretically pay off in dry or wet conditions. Meanwhile, Mercedes continues to improve, with a notable update being a larger and more powerful horizontal damper at the front. This improvement provides a more stable aerodynamic platform and allows for better utilization of the upgraded front wing introduced at Monaco. Both drivers were pleased with the car’s balance at Silverstone.
Considering McLaren’s race-oriented setup, they should have been strong contenders for pole position compared to Mercedes. How would they, or Mercedes, have fared against an undamaged Red Bull driven by Verstappen? It is difficult to say, but even before Verstappen’s incident, the Red Bull seemed less compliant and more challenging to handle than both McLaren and Mercedes.
Despite the damage, the higher-downforce setting of the Red Bull still provided an advantage in corners, as Verstappen claimed it was worth up to 100 points of initial downforce, equivalent to up to a second of lap time. The DRS advantage of the Red Bull was also starting to show on the straights before Copse and Stowe.
However, the Red Bull suffered a significant loss of time on the straight leading to those corners. For example, by mid-corner Luffield, Verstappen was 0.055 seconds ahead of Russell, but by the time he reached Copse, he was 0.171 seconds behind. The Red Bull lost 0.226 seconds to the Mercedes and 0.109 seconds to the McLaren on that straight. On the Hangar Straight, the loss was 0.155 seconds to the Mercedes and 0.033 seconds to the McLaren.
Nevertheless, Verstappen was notably faster through Maggotts than both McLaren and Mercedes, and he gained time on them in the braking areas of Village, Brooklands, and Vale. The RB20 showed the potential for Verstappen to secure pole position at a challenging Silverstone track. However, extracting that potential proved to be extremely difficult, even for him.
The outcome of the race will heavily depend on the weather conditions at Silverstone. Russell anticipates a race similar to Montreal, but with one difference – he will not be taking as many risks this time. Russell, Hamilton, Norris, and Verstappen all have a chance of winning this race.
