Behind closed doors, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials are reportedly expressing deep concerns about a potential second term for Donald Trump, fearing he will escalate tensions and reignite trade wars that marked his first presidency. While publicly staying neutral in U.S. elections, Chinese diplomats have conveyed in private discussions that a Trump return to the White House would be “dangerous” for Beijing, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The Biden-Harris administration has had its share of friction with China, particularly over economic and national security issues, yet Chinese officials see Harris as a more manageable alternative. “Chinese officials and scholars… are largely exceptionally wary of a Trump victory,” noted Richard McGregor, a China expert with the Lowy Institute. CCP diplomat Liu Jianchao has echoed this sentiment, reportedly lamenting Trump’s approach as a “bad experience.”
Trump’s first term saw sweeping tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, aimed at bolstering American manufacturing and pressuring Beijing to increase U.S. imports. Rumors that Trump is considering a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and may raise this to 150%–200% if Beijing threatens Taiwan have rattled officials. UBS economists estimate that these tariffs could cut China’s GDP growth by 2.5% over a year, underscoring the economic toll Trump’s policies could exact.
While Beijing hopes for a stable and predictable U.S. stance, the specter of a second Trump term looms large, with CCP insiders worried that renewed economic battles and Taiwan-related sanctions could further destabilize already tense U.S.-China relations.
