Let’s not mince words: Vladimir Putin’s recent efforts to flex Russian strength by cozying up to China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Narendra Modi aren’t fooling anyone. For all his grandstanding, the reality for Russia is grim. The Russian economy is a fragile shell under immense pressure, teetering on the edge of collapse as Western sanctions continue to bite deeper. And despite all the posturing, Russia’s military remains stretched thin, under-equipped, and demoralized as Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine lurches into another costly month.
Putin is hoping that these alliances will somehow legitimize his campaign in Ukraine or—at the very least—shore up his economy as the West freezes him out. But the facts are plain. Neither China nor India has shown the slightest interest in helping Russia militarily, and both have stopped short of aligning themselves with his war. Putin has offered them discounted oil, which they’re gladly buying, but let’s be real: neither Xi nor Modi is willing to go down with the Kremlin ship. Russia is nothing more than a convenient source of cheap fuel for these rising Asian powers, not a partner they’ll stand by when things get tough.
And things are indeed getting tough. Russia’s economy, which Putin has tried to make seem resilient, is showing cracks everywhere. Sanctions have cut off access to key technology and Western capital, crippled Russian industry, and drained resources faster than they can be replenished. Putin’s government is dipping into its National Wealth Fund at a reckless pace, and it’s becoming harder for Moscow to mask the depth of this crisis from the Russian public, despite state propaganda. We’re seeing a hollowed-out economic powerhouse on the brink, and no amount of discounted oil sales to China or India is going to change that.
On the battlefield, the situation is equally bleak. Putin has lost an estimated 200,000 troops, and his recent mobilization has only sparked backlash among Russian citizens who are increasingly disillusioned by the cost of this failing campaign. Russia’s forces are scrambling to find personnel, forced to rely on prisoners and undertrained recruits, while Ukraine’s Western-backed forces prove remarkably resilient and organized. The Kremlin’s under-resourced, overextended military simply can’t keep up.
The idea that partnerships with China and India can save Putin is more than wishful thinking—it’s pure delusion. These alliances are transactional, not strategic. As his economy crumbles and his military struggles, Putin is finding himself isolated, with fewer and fewer real allies willing to lend a hand. For Americans, this instability poses genuine concerns. We’re watching a nuclear-armed power destabilize in real time, with the potential to impact global security in ways we’re only beginning to understand. Putin’s empire, once formidable, is now a precarious house of cards, and no one should be fooled by his bluster.
