In a stunning turn of events that could reshape the dynamics of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has encountered significant pushback from two of his staunchest allies regarding the deployment of North Korean troops to bolster Russian forces. The United States confirmed this week that North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia, yet the idea of utilizing them in combat has been met with skepticism from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who fear that such a move could escalate the conflict further.
During a recent interview with the BBC at the BRICS summit, Lukashenko insisted that “Putin would never try to persuade another country to involve its army” in the war, warning that sending foreign troops to the front lines would only intensify hostilities. This sentiment was echoed by Xi, who cautioned against “no expansion of the battlefields, no escalation of hostilities, and no fanning flames,” highlighting a reluctance among allies to further inflame an already volatile situation.
The situation has become more complex for Putin as he grapples with high casualty rates among Russian troops and increasing reliance on North Korean artillery and ammunition. U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby indicated that any North Korean soldiers engaging in combat for Russia would be considered “fair game” for Ukrainian forces, signaling that Kyiv would treat them the same as Russian troops.
Experts are casting doubt on the strategic implications of deploying North Korean forces, suggesting that while the Korean People’s Army is large, it has not engaged in sustained combat since the Korean War and faces serious logistical challenges. Michael Butler, a political science professor at Clark University, noted that “the infusion [of North Korean troops] represents a series of prominent examples of Putin’s outsourcing of the conduct of his war,” emphasizing concerns over Russia’s military capacity.
Reports indicate that around 11,000 North Korean troops are currently training in Russia’s Far East, with some already dispatched to the Kursk region. However, reports of attempted desertions have surfaced, raising questions about their effectiveness and morale. As Ukrainian forces continue to push back against Russian advances, analysts believe that the introduction of North Korean troops might not significantly alter the battlefield dynamics.
David Silbey, a historian at Cornell University, stated that even if these troops were deployed, “it’s highly unlikely that the North Koreans will supply enough soldiers to make any substantial difference.” He compared this situation to historical alliances, suggesting that the real impact of North Korean involvement might be more about symbolic sacrifice than actual battlefield strength.
Furthermore, concerns arise that the involvement of North Korean soldiers could trigger an uptick in South Korean support for Ukraine, which might quickly counterbalance any assistance from Pyongyang. Markus Garlauskas from the Atlantic Council warned that while North Korea might gain insights into Russian military technology, this partnership could inadvertently destabilize the Korean Peninsula, potentially leading to heightened tensions involving China and the U.S.
As the conflict in Ukraine drags on, the dynamics between Russia and its allies are shifting. With critical support wavering and skepticism surrounding the deployment of North Korean troops, Putin’s ambitions may face unprecedented challenges. This unfolding scenario not only raises questions about the effectiveness of North Korean military support but also highlights the fragile nature of alliances in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
