Russia’s attempt to escape the West’s stranglehold of sanctions by turning to China and India might seem like a lifeline, but the reality is far more complicated, as analyzed by The Wall Street Journal. Since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been scrambling to build new trade networks with its eastern allies, but it’s hitting more roadblocks than successes. Sure, Russian oil sales to China and India have surged, with Moscow offering hefty discounts, but it’s clear this workaround isn’t sustainable long-term.
In 2023, China and India accounted for half of Russia’s oil exports, helping keep the Kremlin’s war machine fueled. Russia even relied on a fleet of outdated, “shadow” tankers to skirt around Western sanctions, moving oil by sea instead of pipelines. But that’s about where the good news ends for Russia’s decoupling ambitions.
Natural gas, a cornerstone of Russia’s exports, is proving much harder to reroute. Before the war, most of Russia’s gas flowed to Europe through pipelines like Nord Stream—until that was shut off in 2022. Russia is now struggling to send gas eastward. With limited pipeline capacity to China, and no approval for the critical Power of Siberia-2 gas project, Russia’s pivot to Asia is stalling. And while liquefying natural gas for tanker transport could be a solution, U.S. sanctions are blocking Russia’s ability to build the needed infrastructure.
Beyond energy, Russia is finding its once-vaunted trade network unraveling. Moscow is trying to overhaul its outdated rail lines to push more exports into Asia, but the infrastructure is crumbling under the weight of growing trade demands. Meanwhile, coal exports to China, which Russia was banking on, have stagnated. Even hopes of using the melting Arctic ice to open up new shipping routes have been dashed by sanctions that are preventing Russia from acquiring crucial icebreakers.
Russia also aimed to speed up exports to India by using the North-South transport corridor through Iran, but poor infrastructure and bureaucratic delays in Iran have left those plans in limbo. The grand idea of replacing European trade with Asian markets is being choked by logistical nightmares at every turn.
Russia’s workaround for sanctions isn’t limited to trade routes either. The country has been smuggling sanctioned goods through third-party countries with help from allies like China. Despite Beijing’s neutral stance in the war, it remains one of Russia’s biggest suppliers of dual-use goods. Meanwhile, India—Russia’s old ally—isn’t just buying discounted oil but has also quietly helped the Kremlin access critical war components through covert trade deals.
Yet, these backdoor efforts don’t hide the cracks in Russia’s trade empire. The Wall Street Journal report underscores that Russia’s economy is fraying, and despite its best efforts, the web of sanctions is tightening. What once seemed like a survival strategy is now looking more like a losing battle for Moscow.
With mounting economic pressure and no clear way to stabilize its trade routes, Russia is finding it harder and harder to escape the grip of sanctions. As Western countries continue to target key sectors, Russia’s “rewiring” of its global trade is unraveling faster than it can patch it up.
