Christophe Barraud, hailed as the “world’s most accurate economist” by Bloomberg, is turning his predictive talents towards the high-stakes 2024 U.S. presidential election, focusing on how the outcome could impact the markets. Barraud has a proven track record, accurately forecasting economic trends for 11 of the last 12 years, and now he’s applying his expertise to assess the implications of a potential Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency.
In his analysis, Barraud expresses confidence in a growth economy regardless of the victor, though he foresees a “red wave” scenario where Trump regains the White House alongside a Republican-controlled Senate. According to his predictions, this outcome could lead to a GDP increase of 2.1-2.3% in 2025, fueled by anticipated tax cuts. However, he also raises concerns about the escalating U.S. deficit should those tax cuts be enacted.
Barraud utilizes a comprehensive model that integrates economic data, financial analytics, and insights from betting markets, which have favored Trump throughout the year. He warns that if Trump is elected, a divided Congress could limit his power, forcing him to prioritize foreign policy over domestic initiatives. Moreover, the implementation of tariffs—central to Trump’s economic strategy—could hurt global growth and have long-term negative effects on the U.S. economy.
Conversely, if Harris were to win amid a divided Congress, Barraud predicts a status quo economic environment, with minimal changes expected in policy direction. Current polling indicates that Trump holds a slight edge over Harris regarding economic perception, a crucial factor in presidential elections.
As voters express concerns over inflation and economic stability, Trump leads Harris 48% to 46% in a recent CNBC All-America Economic Survey, showcasing his appeal among those prioritizing economic issues. With just two weeks left until Election Day, both candidates are intensifying their campaigns in key battleground states, highlighting their economic messages.
With the election looming, the stakes are high, and the financial markets will be watching closely to see how the outcome shapes the future economic landscape. As Barraud’s insights circulate, the question remains: will the anticipated red wave manifest, and how will it alter the course of the American economy in 2025?
