A looming Trump victory in the U.S. election could throw Germany’s fragile three-party coalition a much-needed lifeline. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is on the verge of collapse, battling budget chaos and deep ideological divides. But if Donald Trump triumphs, the political calculus could shift dramatically, forcing German leaders to cling together for stability.
With explosive issues like pension reform and a massive budget shortfall threatening to tear apart Scholz’s coalition, tensions between the Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats are higher than ever. Some have even openly threatened to break the alliance. However, a Trump win could scare German politicians into sticking it out, fearing the instability a Trump-led U.S. would unleash on Europe.
“If Trump wins, it’ll send shockwaves through Germany’s political scene,” warned SPD lawmaker Ralf Stegner. The Free Democrats, often seen as the most likely to jump ship, are also showing signs of reconsidering their exit. “We can’t afford new elections if the global political situation becomes more volatile under Trump,” admitted FDP’s Reinhard Houben.
However, even with the Trump-induced pressure to stay united, the coalition faces “unbridgeable clefts” over critical issues like the federal budget and pension reform. If Kamala Harris wins instead, all bets are off, and Germany’s shaky government may once again be at each other’s throats, accelerating its collapse. One thing is clear: November’s U.S. election could determine the fate of Germany’s political future.
