In a major strategic shift, the U.S. Air Force is considering an expansion of its B-21 Raider fleet to enhance its military power projection capabilities, spurred by rising threats from China and Russia. Announced by Northrop Grumman on October 24, 2024, this potential fleet growth reflects the Air Force’s critical evaluation of future force structure, which also places its Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program under review.
The B-21 Raider, designed for stealth long-range missions and equipped for both conventional and nuclear payloads, represents a crucial asset in the U.S. arsenal. Its ability to penetrate complex air defenses and strike targets deep within enemy territory provides a significant boost to America’s strategic deterrence. With aging fleets of B-1 and B-2 bombers nearing retirement, expanding the B-21 inventory offers a cost-effective solution for maintaining military readiness without the delays of developing entirely new platforms like the NGAD.
The decision comes as both China and Russia intensify their efforts to develop stealth bombers capable of challenging U.S. air superiority. China’s H-20 stealth bomber and Russia’s PAK DA are slated to boost their nations’ long-range strike potential, presenting direct competition to the B-21’s role on the global stage. However, the B-21’s cutting-edge stealth features, modular design, and dual-purpose capability make it a formidable response to these threats.
Frederic Warden, Northrop Grumman’s CEO, highlighted the Air Force’s ongoing review of its B-21 fleet and NGAD program as part of a comprehensive effort to meet modern operational demands. The Air Force has currently earmarked 100 B-21 bombers, yet rising voices in defense circles argue that this number may fall short of addressing simultaneous threats from multiple adversaries. Retired Colonel Mark Gunzinger, a senior fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, advocates for a larger fleet to strengthen both conventional defense and nuclear deterrence capabilities.
The NGAD program, aimed at creating a sixth-generation fighter to succeed the F-22 Raptor, is similarly under intense scrutiny due to its projected cost, which could reach hundreds of millions per unit. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has pushed for cost adjustments that would bring NGAD pricing closer to that of the F-35, between $80 million and $100 million per aircraft. This recalibration could generate savings that may support a larger B-21 fleet, but defense experts warn against pitting the programs as substitutes, noting their unique roles.
Northrop Grumman has assured that it is prepared to increase B-21 production if the Air Force opts to expand its fleet. With the aircraft’s per-unit cost currently estimated at $780 million, costs are expected to rise in later production phases, but Warden confirmed that initial costs remain within projections. As the Air Force considers awarding a second low-rate initial production (LRIP) contract by year-end, the size and scope of the B-21 fleet remain pivotal to America’s airpower future.
The recalibration of the U.S. Air Force’s strategy underscores a challenging crossroads for American airpower: balancing cutting-edge technological advancements with budget constraints, all while keeping an eye on a rapidly evolving global threat landscape. The decisions on B-21 expansion and NGAD program development will not only define the force’s capabilities in the coming decades but also its role in upholding U.S. deterrence worldwide.
